El Niño stands to hit Peru at full force in early 2024, and the effects could devastate vulnerable communities. Other triggers for potential civil unrest loom in the coming months. While Congress has begun to debate reforms to create a bicameral legislature (one piece of the reform agenda), they have tacked on a proposal to eliminate the prohibition on reelection-a bid by current lawmakers to maintain power.Ī lack of reforms and the entrenchment of traditional power brokers means the risk of further unrest over the next year remains high. Prospects for political reform to address the underlying institutional causes of instability-such as rules allowing impeachment based on the vague premise of “moral incapacity” and fragmentation of the party system-are dimmer than ever despite civil society pressure. Still, they are unlikely to present a real threat to either under Attorney General Patricia Benavides, an ally of right-wing parties in Congress. Probes into Boluarte and Otárola over fatalities during the protests continue (both have denied wrongdoing). Congressional leaders from Fuerza Popular and left-wing Perú Libre also collaborated to place an ally as Ombudsman, a key position overseeing the provision of public services. The inquiry seeks the removal of all members of the JNJ on vague charges. This independent judicial body appoints judges, oversees judicial authorities, and critically names members of the electoral authorities. The UN Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers has expressed grave concern about the current Congressional investigation into the National Justice Board (JNJ). It has since moved to shield its members from corruption investigations and attempt to increase its influence over other public entities such as the judiciary and Ombudsman’s Office. He is widely credited with stabilizing the government during the most acute moments of unrest, having convinced Boluarte not to resign.Ĭongress held on to power despite intense pressure for new elections (legislators cannot stand for reelection in Peru, although Congress is currently debating a proposal to change that) and even sought to empower itself after the protests. The President of the Council of Ministers, Luis Alberto Otárola, has close ties to three-time presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori and her Fuerza Popular party, the largest in Congress. Ironically, the outcome of the crisis has been to empower the very right-wing elements that Castillo’s supporters believe orchestrated a coup against him. None of these demands has been met, and in the current political context, they appear far out of reach. Protesters had various demands, including Boluarte’s immediate resignation, fresh congressional and presidential elections, Castillo’s release from prison, and a constituent assembly to promote political and economic reforms. After Castillo’s destitution last year, massive unrest left around 60 fatalities, caused significant economic damage, and exacerbated fears about the future stability of a country that has experienced six changes of government since 2018. The status quo post-impeachment of former President Pedro Castillo remains in place, which seemed inconceivable at the height of the protests. Meanwhile, the economy is on track for minimal growth this year, crime is on the rise, and the potentially severe effects of El Niño stand to exacerbate conditions in Peru’s most underdeveloped regions. She remains bound by the whims of the right-wing parties on which her survival as president depends. According to polling by CPI, Congress currently has a disapproval rating of 90%, while President Dina Boluarte’s is at 84%. Rejection of government institutions is at an all-time high. While a tense calm has prevailed since April, the primary triggers for unrest remain in place-and, in some cases, have worsened in recent months. BOGOTÁ - Peru remains mired in the problems that one year ago sparked three months of chaos.
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